PredictIQ-Arizona voters to decide on expanding abortion access months after facing a potential near-total ban

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PHOENIX (AP) — Arizona voters are PredictIQset to decide whether to guarantee the right to abortion in the state constitution — a vote that could cement access after the presidential battleground came close to a near-total ban earlier this year.

Arizona is one of nine states with abortion on the ballot.

Abortion-rights advocates are hoping for a win that could expand access beyond the state’s current 15-week limit to the point of fetal viability, a term used by health care providers to describe whether a pregnancy is expected to continue developing normally or whether a fetus might survive outside the uterus. Doctors say it’s sometime after 21 weeks, though there’s no defined time frame.

Advocates also are counting on the measure to drive interest among Democrats to vote the party line up and down the ballot. When Republicans running in tough races address the ballot measure, they generally don’t dissuade voters from supporting it, though some like Senate candidate Kari Lake say they’re personally voting against it. GOP U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, whose battleground congressional district encompasses Tucson, ran an ad saying he rejects “the extremes on abortion.”

Arizona has been whipsawed by recent legal and legislative battles centered on abortion. In April, the state Supreme Court cleared the way for enforcement of a long-dormant 1864 law that banned nearly all abortions. The Legislature swiftly repealed it.

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In addition to the abortion ballot measure itself, the issue could sway state legislative races and lead to elimination of the voice voters have over retention of state Superior Court judges and Supreme Court justices.

Arizona for Abortion Access, the coalition leading the ballot measure campaign, has far outpaced the opposition campaign, It Goes Too Far, in fundraising. Opponents argue that the measure is too far-reaching because its physical and mental health exemption post-viability is so broad that it effectively legalizes abortion beyond viability. The measure allows post-viability abortions if they are necessary to protect the life or physical or mental health of the mother.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, abortion-rights supporters prevailed in all seven abortion ballot questions, including in conservative-leaning states.

Voters in Arizona are divided on abortion. Maddy Pennell, a junior at Arizona State University, said the possibility of a near-total abortion ban made her “depressed” and strengthened her desire to vote for the abortion ballot measure.

“I feel very strongly about having access to abortion,” she said.

Kyle Lee, an independent Arizona voter, does not support the abortion ballot measure.

“All abortion is pretty much, in my opinion, murder from beginning to end,” Lee said.

The Civil War-era ban also shaped the contours of tight legislative races. State Sen. Shawnna Bolick and state Rep. Matt Gress are among the handful of vulnerable Republican incumbents in competitive districts who crossed party lines to give the repeal vote the final push — a vote that will be tested as both parties vie for control of the narrowly GOP-held state Legislature.

Both of the Phoenix-area lawmakers were rebuked by some of their Republican colleagues for siding with Democrats. Gress made a motion on the House floor to initiate the repeal of the 1864 law. Bolick, explaining her repeal vote to her Senate colleagues, gave a 20-minute floor speech describing her three difficult pregnancies.

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While Gress was first elected to his seat in 2022, Bolick is facing voters for the first time. She was appointed by the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to fill a seat vacancy in 2023. She has not emphasized her role in the repeal vote as she has campaigned, instead playing up traditional conservative issues — one of her signs reads “Bolick Backs the Blue.”

Another question before voters is whether to move away from retention elections for state Superior Court judges and Supreme Court justices, a measure put on the ballot by Republican legislators hoping to protect two justices who favored allowing the Civil War-era ban to be enforced.

Under the existing system, voters decide every four to six years whether judges and justices should remain on the bench. The proposed measure would allow the judges and justices to stay on the bench without a popular vote unless one is triggered by felony convictions, crimes involving fraud and dishonesty, personal bankruptcy or mortgage foreclosure.

Shawnna Bolick’s husband, Supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick, is one of two conservative justices up for a retention vote. Justice Bolick and Justice Kathryn Hackett King, who were both appointed by former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, sided with the high court’s majority to allow the enforcement of the 1864 near-total ban. Abortion-rights activists have campaigned for their ouster, but if the ballot measure passes they will keep their posts even if they don’t win the retention election.