Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-Violent crime dropped for third straight year in 2023, including murder and rape

(This story was updated to add new information.)

Violent crime in the United States declined for the third straight year in 2023,Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center including instances of murder, rape and assault, according to Federal Bureau of Investigation estimates released Monday. Overall violent crime declined 3% compared to the prior year, the FBI statistics show. Murder decreased more than 11%, while rape fell roughly 9%.

The decreases follow a sharp uptick in crime during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the murder rate spiked in its largest single-year increase on record. Violent crime then ticked back down slightly in 2021 and again in 2022, according to the FBI’s national crime estimates.

Crime rates have become a key issue in the 2024 presidential election. Monday’s report on violent crime trends runs counter to claims by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who has repeatedly attacked Democratic rival Kamala Harris for her record on crime and safety and claimed without evidence that migrants who cross the border illegally are responsible for a rising tide of violent crime.

President Joe Biden, in a statement, praised the decline in crime, noting his administration’s investments in public safety and executive actions on guns. Harris said that while the numbers represented "great progress, we are not stopping now.”

“I am committed to continuing our work to support local law enforcement, invest in proven crime prevention and community violence intervention, and address gun violence with commonsense gun safety laws,” Harris, a former prosecutor and district attorney in California, said.

Crime has generally been trending down since the 1990s. The continued decrease in 2023 is unsurprising given preliminary data that had already been released, but it's hard to explain exactly what's driving the change, according to Jeff Asher, a crime-data analyst who has worked at the CIA and Department of Defense. 

"You talk to 10 criminologists, and you might get 10 different answers," Asher told USA TODAY. "So explaining it is very difficult with any form of crime data, especially when you're sort of in the middle of the trend."

In the latest report released Monday, aggravated assaults declined an estimated 2.8% and robbery fell 0.3%. Despite the overall decrease, instances of certain offenses, including motor vehicle theft and hate crimes, rose in 2023, according to the FBI, which cautioned that the increase in hate crimes could be due to higher reporting.

Trump has said that if he’s reelected, he would institute the death penalty for human traffickers and drug dealers, and he does not believe federal statistics like the FBI’s report showing that violent crime trends are declining. FBI officials declined to comment when asked about Trump’s claims in a call with reporters but said the agency’s methodology has been consistent.

Ernesto Lopez, a senior research specialist at the Council on Criminal Justice noted that while national trends are moving one way, the effects may not be felt equally in all cities, which could lead to public misconceptions about crime rates.

Law enforcement agencies in the nation's largest cities – those with at least 1 million people – showed a 7% decrease in violent crime in 2023, while communities with between 250,000 and 499,999 people reported a 0.3% increase, FBI data showed.

"It's a complicated story, but it's also one that's consistent with past findings that perceptions don't necessarily match the numbers," Lopez said.

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The FBI found motor vehicle thefts rose more than 12%, while the Council on Criminal Justice found the thefts increased 29% in just 34 cities, Lopez said. Both Lopez and Asher said TikTok videos showing viewers how to steal certain models of cars may have contributed to increases.

Violent crime rose 5.6% during the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide protest movement following the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. Violent crime went down 1% in 2021 and another 1.7% in 2022, according to the FBI’s national crime estimates.

"Whenever you have a period of rapid social change, it's not necessarily uncommon that you could see crime increase," Lopez said. "And so as you start moving away from that and other social forces begin to normalize, you would expect crime trends to sort of return back to where they were before, and I think that's what we're seeing to some extent."

Hate crimes have been on the rise in the United States for several years, but national hate crime data is notoriously flawed because it's not mandatory for all of the country's more than 18,000 law enforcement agencies to submit data on hate crimes. In 2023, roughly 16,000 agencies submitted data to the FBI.

Adjusting for year-to-year fluctuations and using data from agencies with more consistent reporting, the FBI found hate crimes actually fell by 0.6% from 10,687 in 2022 to 10,627 in 2023, the agency told reporters.

Other datasets show the true total is likely much higher, Brian Levin, professor emeritus and founder of the Center for the Study of Hate & Extremism at California State University, San Bernardino previously told USA TODAY. Levin's analysis of the nation's 10 most populous cities found hate crimes reported to police increased 16% in 2023, according to a draft of the report.

Asher said his data from about 300 cities, known as the Real-Time Crime Index, indicates murders have dropped even more sharply this year. Preliminary reports published this summer from the Major Cities Chiefs Association and the Council on Criminal Justice also show crime has continued to drop in 2024.

Lopez said the decline can possibly be attributed to large drops in homicides in cities that historically have high rates, while cities with historically lower homicides rates have remained elevated.

"I think overall, you know, it looks promising," he said. "What we're seeing with a lot of violent crime [data] from the FBI report, but also from our report, is that it doesn't appear to be trending back up."

Contributing: Reuters; Zac Anderson, USA TODAY