PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Justin Herbert injury concerns could zap Chargers' season, but Jim Harbaugh stays cool

EL SEGUNDO,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center Calif. – Leave it to Jim Harbaugh to spin it half-full when pondering the matter of conducting his first Los Angeles Chargers training camp with star quarterback Justin Herbert sidelined by a foot injury.

Herbert, rehabbing a plantar fascia injury in his right foot, is expected to be ready for the regular-season opener against the Las Vegas Raiders at SoFi Stadium on Sept. 8, but for now he’s still in a walking boot. Sure, worse setbacks can be imagined for a franchise banking on a revival as Harbaugh comes back to the NFL on the heels of leading Michigan to a controversy-filled national championship. Yet with a new system being installed, an assortment of new weapons and rhythm needing to be established, the early blow of not having the team’s best player completely in the flow is hardly ideal. Herbert, projected to miss two to four weeks when the injury was revealed on Aug. 1, is missing out on valuable reps.

“Not all work is being done on the practice field,” Harbaugh told USA TODAY Sports following a camp practice last week. “That’s really a small part of the day. Significant. Very significant. But there’s much being done in terms of mental reps, film work, building a rapport…

“Justin’s really grown to a place in his career where he’s not just leading the offense. It’s team-wide. He’s been incredible at it the entire time. I can go back to mid-April. He’s got a tremendous grasp on the offense.”

Of course, typical Harbaugh, it would be difficult to detect if he’s worried. There’s no vibe of panic or pity. After all, managing injuries – and the mindset when they strike – is inherent to the job. Teams have made playoff runs with backup quarterbacks, and at least a couple have even won Super Bowls with such predicaments.

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But still. Herbert, a fifth-year pro, is the one who passed for more yards in his first three seasons than anyone in NFL history. Teaming that talent with Harbaugh, a former NFL quarterback, has dynamic potential. The threat of a setback has to be sobering.

“Even with the preference that he was able to practice, he’s not,” Harbaugh said. “So, let’s not think about that. Let’s think about all the things we can do. And he’s into anything and everything to get himself ready for that opening day.”

Harbaugh wouldn’t address the NCAA discipline levied last week, which effectively prohibits him from coaching on the college level for four years due to recruiting violations. The NFL, meanwhile, hasn’t definitively stated whether it will review Harbaugh’s case. And the prospect of NFL discipline certainly didn’t deter teams from pursuing Harbaugh as a hot commodity on the coaching market.

In any event, the pressing matter of the moment involves his quarterback. A key marker of progress could come this week if Herbert gets out of the walking boot. When the Chargers announced the injury, they expected he could be in the boot for approximately two weeks, then continue with a return-to-play protocol upon receiving clearance from doctors. On Monday, he was still in the boot, and Harbaugh told reporters that there was no update. The past two weeks, in addition to the behind-the-scenes work that Harbaugh alluded to, Herbert has been on the field during practices as an observer and worked in the weight room..

Then there are contingency plans. Herbert’s injury has meant first-team reps for Easton Stick, who was next-man-up last season when Herbert missed the final four games due to a fractured finger and went 0-4 as the sub starter. Now it’s fair to question how comfortable Harbaugh and coordinator Greg Roman would be if Stick, a sixth-year pro, is called on again for such extensive duty.

The Chargers’ preseason-opening loss against the Seahawks on Saturday may have added consternation. With Stick under center, the Chargers didn’t make a first down on any of their first six drives. Stick finished 5-of-13 for 31 yards with an interception and 14.6 passer rating.

Asked last week if there was a legitimate competition for the No. 2 job behind Herbert, Harbaugh didn’t dismiss it. Following last week’s signing of Luis Perez (who led the UFL in passing last season and before that led the Arlington Renegades to the XFL title), the Chargers currently stand with four quarterbacks on the roster.

“Yeah, I want to do that for Easton, for the team,” Harbaugh said. “Competition brings out the best in people.”

And that includes Harbaugh, with his track record of winning wherever he’s coached. He’s determined to build a physical team, supporting a healthy Herbert with a smashmouth rushing attack that includes the 1-2 punch of former Ravens running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and has added first-round tackle Joe Alt. But the wide receiver corps has been overhauled following the departures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

The defense, meanwhile, ranked 28^th in the NFL for yards allowed last season and is now coordinated by Jesse Minter, who followed Harbaugh from Michigan. The strength comes with arguably the NFL’s best set of edge rushers in Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, fortified by free-agent signee Bud Dupree and backed by a secondary led by star safety Derwin James.

Still, the task of turning around a team that finished 5-12 in 2023 includes competing in a division owned by the Chiefs, who have won back-to-back Super Bowls and eight consecutive AFC West titles.

It might be a bit much to expect Harbaugh’s team to emerge as an instant playoff contender.

“I have a keen awareness of the division we’re playing in and who we’re playing against,” said Harbaugh, who led the San Francisco 49ers to a Super Bowl during his previous NFL coaching stint. “The expectation is to be better today than we were yesterday, and to be better today than we were today.”

Harbaugh talks up the effort.

“If it goes good, it’s because of their willingness to put in the work,” he said. “If it goes bad, then I’m a bad manager.”

Yeah, but is this a playoff team?

Harbaugh, whose brother John leads an AFC contender with the Baltimore Ravens, was in no mood to bite or supply bulletin-board declarations.

“Let’s put it in the words of Jackie Harbaugh,” he said. “The best advice I’ve ever heard comes from my mother: One play at a time. One game at a time. One day at a time.”

And surely, one big challenge at time, like dealing with Herbert’s absence.

“And that’s up to all of us,” Harbaugh said. “The challenges are daily, you know. That’s what all these guys are in the business of doing. Meeting challenges. What’s next? That’s the nature of this business.”

Which could come with the reality check of ugly alternatives.