FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Women's Sweet 16 bold predictions for Friday games: Notre Dame, Stanford see dance end

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centermadness is back Friday, and games only get sweeter from here on out − that’s our prediction at least. It feels like we're due for some buzzer-beaters or overtime battles. Maybe both.

This round of the women's NCAA Tournament has pretty much everything you could want, from longtime powerhouses dancing deep for the umpteenth time to programs trying to make the second weekend a regular destination. There’s savvy seniors, phenomenal freshmen and everything in between. Here are some bold predictions for round 1 of the Sweet 16, which tips off Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

1. Notre Dame’s injuries will finally catch up with the Irish

(2) Notre Dame vs. (3) Oregon State | 2:30 p.m. | ESPN

You have to be impressed with the second-seeded Irish, who lost point guard Olivia Miles to a season-ending injury last year. Everyone knew she wouldn’t be ready to go at the beginning of the season and a freshman, Hannah Hidalgo, would have to step in. But could anyone have anticipated Hidalgo would play like a first-team All-American? 

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But that’s hardly been the only injury issue for Notre Dame. Guard Cass Prosper has missed most of the season, not playing since November, and the Irish lost forward Kylee Watson to a torn ACL during the ACC tournament. At some point, those injuries catch up with the Irish − and we’re thinking it happens in the Sweet 16, vs. Oregon State. 

2. South Carolina will build a 30-point lead in the first half

(1) South Carolina vs. (4) Indiana | 5 p.m. | ESPN

This is not a knock on Indiana, a sneaky good team known for defense that is actually very good offensively, too. (The Hoosiers lead the country in field goal percentage, shooting 50.6%, a testament to the fact that they take good shots). This is more a comment on how good, and how deep, South Carolina is; seven Gamecocks average 8.0 points or more, and Dawn Staley never seems to run out of playmakers to turn to. It’s not just about beating South Carolina this year − the question has become, can anyone even play with them? Our guess is no, and the top-seeded team will make that obvious very quickly. 

3. Stanford’s posts will combine for 50 points … and the Cardinal will still lose

(2) Stanford vs. (3) NC State | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Stanford has the best 1-2 post punch in the country. Cameron Brink, a first team All-American who averages a double-double and loves to score through contact. Then there’s Kiki Iriafen, the Pac-12’s most improved player this season who has a lethal mid-post game. Containing one of them is tough. Stopping both is darn near impossible. 

But that won’t matter vs. NC State on Friday, because we predict guard play, Stanford’s weakness all season, will be the X-factor. Yes, Brink and Iriafen will stuff the stat sheet − but it’ll come mostly from offensive boards and putbacks, because the Wolfpack is going to make life miserable for Stanford’s perimeter.   

4. Gonzaga will put the mid-major label to rest on the women’s side, too

(1) Texas vs. (4) Gonzaga | 10 p.m. | ESPN

For years, this has been the rallying cry of Gonzaga men’s basketball fans: The Zags, with their nine consecutive trips to the Sweet 16, two Final Fours since 2017 and back-to-back lottery picks should be considered a power, period. 

The same argument can be made for the women. While there’s not quite as much parity (yet) in the game, Gonzaga has absolutely staked its claim as one of the top programs in America. The Zags consistently win 20-plus games, spend multiple weeks in the top 25 rankings and during this regular season beat Stanford, Arizona, Alabama, Rice and Eastern Washington, all tournament teams. 

"We’re long past it," GU coach Lisa Fortier said of the mid-major label. "I would be happy to hear us not be considered in this (mid-major) realm … I think people out there who know the quality of our program probably haven’t been calling us a mid-major for a long time." 

One way to shed the label permanently: Beat the top-ranked seed in your region, which the Zags are more than capable of doing against No. 1 Texas. 

Email Lindsay Schnell at [email protected] and follow her on social media @Lindsay_Schnell