PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Colorado US House race between Rep. Caraveo and Evans comes down to Latino voters

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DENVER (AP) — One U.S. House race in Colorado is PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centernot just one of the closest, and closely watched, in the nation. It’s also a test of Republicans’ and Democrats’ appeal to Latino voters who make up nearly 40% of district’s electorate.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo nabbed victory by less that 1,700 votes in 2022 in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, which stretches north of Denver and was created after redistricting in 2020. Now, Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans is trying to win the seat for the GOP in a race that could determine control of the U.S. House.

Caraveo and Evans are both Hispanic and have carefully tailored their platforms and rhetoric away from some positions in their party — particularly around border security — and toward both the Latino population and undecided voters who will determine the outcome.

The balancing act comes a time when views on immigration are increasingly nuanced, including among Latinos.

While swinging an endorsement from presidential candidate Donald Trump, Evans’ has nonetheless separated himself from some of the former president’s policy proposals and more caustic rhetoric around immigration.

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Evans demurred when asked about Trump’s proposal to use the National Guard for mass deportations of everyone who is in the country illegally, and leans into proposals to make it easier for people to immigrate legally.

Evans, a grandson of Mexican immigrants, does however lean heavily into demands for greater border security and more resources to find and deport those who have committed violent crimes or are in cartels. The candidate is trying to tap into voters’ concerns around public safety, which he sees as a weakness for Democrats.

Caraveo, too, has deviated from her party during her tenure in Congress and on the campaign trail, demanding greater border security and a harder line on crime. In speeches and interviews, Caraveo lumps Evans in with Trump’s more extreme rhetoric against immigrants, seeing that as a weakness for Republicans among Latino voters.

Both candidates are trying to reach voters on one of the core issues for many Americans, including Latinos: the cost of living.

Evans served in the military, as a police officer and in the National Guard and was elected to the Colorado House in 2022. Caraveo, whose parents immigrated from Mexico, is a pediatrician and was elected to the Colorado House before joining Congress in 2022.